So much of the discussion about filling Antonin Scalia’s spot on the Supreme Court has centered around the electoral consequences of different strategic choices, especially on the Republican side. Should Republicans obstruct at all costs in order to satisfy a base that can’t get enough Obama hatred, or should they use their available leverage to pressure the president (who will be president until January 19, 2017, just to be clear) to appoint a centrist who, for conservative purposes, would be preferable to potential Clinton or Sanders nominees? What are the political and legal ramifications of accepting 4-4 decisions, which would leave a number of significant Court of Appeals rulings standing at a time when a majority of circuits has majorities appointed by Democratic presidents? And how would long-term obstruction affect the electoral chances of blue-state Republican senators up for re-election?
But I confess to harboring doubts about Senate Republicans’ strategic acumen when a sober calculation of the party’s best interests so often collides with the white-hot rage of its base. Consider these two examples:
- The Republican National Committee’s Growth and Opportunity Project, in its 2013 autopsy of the recently concluded presidential election, argued that unless the party took up the cause of comprehensive immigration reform, and more generally adopted a more welcoming tone toward Latinos, the “Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.” “If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence.” Yet the leading Republican candidates have rejected Mitt Romney’s “self-deportation” policy as too lenient.
- When Attorney General Eric Holder announced his resignation last September, he stated that his departure would take effect as soon as his successor was confirmed. You might think that conservatives, who led the successful effort to make Holder the first sitting Cabinet member to be held in contempt by Congress, would have fallen over themselves to replace Holder with just about anybody. Instead, Republicans dragged out Loretta Lynch’s confirmation process for five months, thereby extending Holder’s tenure.
For now, it’s unclear whether the American public will be treated to Potemkin confirmation proceedings or none at all. But let’s not assume that Obama’s opponents are engaged in grand strategic calculations, when it’s more likely that their actions are simply about trying to avoid attracting the ire of the conservative id.